Saturday, November 11, 2006

Life in Smearland

What would experience be like if you thought in terms of finding the right outcome/picking the universe? Of maximizing the differentials associated with what you had already observed and using them to influence observations you had yet to make?

Thusfar I have mostly stayed away from discussing my own personal applications of this theory. And there are good reasons for that. But sometimes a picture or demonstration can convey what theoretical discussion cannot. And so I re-post the following...

Mission:Improbable

Okay, so here's something really mundane that just struck me today for some reason...

Today I needed to go to the store and purchase three items - conditioner, toilet paper, and laundry detergent (brand, type and size specified beforehand for all three). Let's call these the target items - all parameters for achieving a 'hit' were specified beforehand, including acceptable price (on sale - less than $3, less than $3, and less than $4, respectively - based on many years of purchasing these same items and knowing what a good sale price is). In addition, this exercise included the additional parameter for success of finding all three on sale at the same location.

Once the mission parameters were in place, the search began with a perusal of the ads in the Sunday paper. Oh that I could easily navigate myself to the universe where I simply pick up an ad for my favorite store and see all three items on sale, but for now we'll just leave it that I didn't/couldn't. (Sometimes what looks like the easiest road is not the easiest road simply because we resist things that are too easy.) But I did find the universe where one store had the detergent and the toilet paper on sale. Good enough. Off I go. (Insert Mission:Impossible theme music here.)

An exercise is never a success or failure until all the relevant observations have been made, so I just needed to nudge a little to find the universe where all three items were on sale. No problem. I didn't know exactly how it would be accomplished, but I pulled toward the universe where I got the target item at the target price. And lo and behold, a special in-store coupon book with the coupon that put my item within the target price range. One down. Toilet paper - got it! Two down. Get the laundry detergent and it's mission accomplished.

Wherein I run into an unforseen potential obstacle... there appears to be no target item on the shelf. Has it sold out already? Is it stocked elsewhere in the store? What sequence of observations ensures that I find it? Rapidfire calculations of various standards probabilities flew through my head. As it turned out, the easiest way to ensure success was to find the universe where one last bottle of detergent was hiding at the very back of the shelf. An observation with an easy dichotomous split between the possible outcomes. Ensure the desired outcome, and when ready, make the relevant observation. And sure enough, there it was. The lone bottle of detergent hiding at the back of the shelf.

Proceed to checkout counter, where I am hit with the knowledge that nobody else in this store is thinking like this while buying their items. What would the Universe be like if everyone could get exactly what they want, for exactly the price they want, anytime they want? (Deep thoughts last until a really good song comes on the radio during the drive home.)