Monday, October 16, 2006

Critical Concepts

"Oh... neural linear decomposition of the state vector, followed by phase-shifting and preferential reinforcement of selected eigenstates. You're right: we'd better think of something catchier, or the whole thing will end up being grossly misreported."

Successful navigation of Smearland requires a firm grip on the idea that an event can be defined and observed in many ways and at many levels.

Ex: In following my favorite sports team, I can know the outcome of last night's game (win or lose) by reading about it in the next day's paper, or tuning in periodically throughout the game for updates, or watching the game in its entirety in person. Different amounts of information to answer the same question - win or lose? A different picture of the game. A different framework for the critical observation that answers my question about whether my team won or lost. Watching the whole game in person is a long series of observations, each of which contributes just a little to the final observation of a win or a loss. Reading about the game in the paper is a single observation that resolves the win/lose question.

Why is this important?

If you decide to try to steer yourself to a specific universe (outcome), you will have to select a framework in which to make the critical observations. In selecting a framework for your observation(s), you will want to consider the event family in each frame. Event family refers to the set of possible observations for a given set of timespace coordinates.

Ex: We are playing poker and I have a wicked hand that would be made better by any of the following cards - any club, any seven, and especially, the seven of clubs. According to standard odds calculation, the odds of drawing each of these cards gets progressively smaller as we move up the list. This is because the way the deck has been divided and classified has changed in each case. (Remember that classification is a cognitive function, not an inherent property of the deck.) I may choose to focus on pulling a club out of an event family where the possible observations are club, diamond, spade, and heart. Or I may choose the event family with 13 possible observations - Ace through King. Event family reflects, but is not completely defined by, the choice of sorting criteria. The other criteria by which the cards may be sorted once an event family is selected can become irrelevant because they are cognitive constructs. And since perception becomes observation only after cognitive filtering, a skillful inhabitant of Smearland directs himself to the final observation in part by controlling the influence of these filters.

I emphasize framework and event family here because it will take you awhile to break away from using standard odds calculation as a landmark in Smearland. In Randomness Isn't Random, I began to tell you why standard odds calculation becomes meaningless in Smearland. I'll come back to the topic of redefining probability in future posts. In the meantime, think about how why these concepts might have an impact on an unobserved outcome.