Friday, August 03, 2007

What Happens In Vegas

(Time for another story...)

Once upon a time, I attended a convention. At this convention, I attended a talk. Prior to the talk, I conversed with two individuals sitting next to me. They asked what I did, I told them about what I was studying and, like clockwork, their eyebrows went up in the fashion of skeptics everywhere. "A demonstration is in order," thought I.

There were roughly 100 people attending this talk, and two fairly substantial and desirable door prizes were to be given away before the talk ended. Skipping to the end of the story... Yes, I walked away with one of the door prizes. The interesting part of this story is HOW I plotted a trajectory through Smearland that led a universe where I won one of the door prizes.

To be a truly impressive feat in keeping with my claims, the door prizes would have to be given away in some random fashion. (As opposed to as prizes for a competition which involved knowledge or skill.) Task #1 - Make sure we end up in the universe where the prizes are given away via some random or quasi-random system. (Done.)

Task #2 involved the framework problem. The gist of my problem was this... Under these circumstances, it would have been more difficult for me to navigate to the winning universe if only one critical observation were involved. Ex: If every person had a unique number, all numbers were put into a bin, and two were selected at random. Task #2 - Secure a more favorable framework of observations. (Done. I found the universe where a subgroup of the audience was selected, and then from the subgroup, a winner. Much easier course to navigate for reasons we will discuss later.)

Task #3 - Find the universe where I win one of the door prizes. (Done.)

Task #4 should have been to ensure that I also landed in a universe where the individuals in question put two and two together and concluded that I did know what I was talking about. Alas, I failed in this task. Probably because I was too preoccupied with winning, and I assumed (fatal error) that recognition would follow.

The moral of this story is that each task involves its own critical observations, and each observation was critical in determining the nature and success of the next task. This is the nature of navigating through Smearland. You need to be aware of what other possible outcomes might arise before they occur. You also need to be aware of how one result will impact your ability to see the next set of outcomes and to generate the forces necessary to select that outcome at will.

What would have happened if I had not been successful in Task #2? Of if I had not thought to find a universe other than the obvious one where the two winners were drawn from a pool of all audience members at random? Certainly, if I had won under those circumstance, my skeptic friends may have remembered our conversation and been a little impressed, but the point is, one way or another, I decided to find a universe where I won, and I did. :) Shhh... don't tell anyone.